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Innovation lessons from the 1930s

History suggests that even the deepest downturns can create huge opportunities for companies with money and ideas.

Recent turmoil in global financial markets and its spillover into the real economy have generated considerable interest in the Great Depression. There’s much to be fascinated with, both in the parallels (banking failures, a large spike in real-estate foreclosures, and global uncertainty, for example) and the points of contrast (such as the speed and coordination of the response of central banks and finance ministries in 2008).

Can the business practices of the 1930s yield useful lessons for executives setting priorities in today’s uncertain and evolving environment? For investments to promote innovation, the answer may be yes. Executives are often told to maintain investment during downturns. It’s easy to question this countercyclical advice, however, in times like the Depression or the present, when the volatility of financial markets (an indicator of uncertainty) reaches historic highs. Is the typical behavior of executives—act cautiously and delay investment projects until confidence returns—the wiser course?

Many companies hesitated to innovate during the 1930s. Consider, for example, patent applications as a proxy for resources devoted to innovation. The growth rate of US patent applications by companies with R&D laboratories was considerably lower during the 1930s than in the preceding decade. On the whole, corporate executives considering plans for research investments preferred to wait and see.

Furthermore, patent applications were far more synchronized with the business cycle during the Depression, when the cycle was extremely volatile, than they had been during the ’20s, when economic conditions were buoyant (exhibit). From 1929 to 1937, for example, there were five years of GDP growth and four years of GDP contraction. Patent applications generally followed the same pattern, lagging behind by one year: the number of patent applications increased during years following GDP growth and decreased during years following GDP contraction, with two exceptions: 1934 and 1935. As the economy whipsawed companies during the 1930s, they appear to have regularly adjusted their views about the payoff from innovation.

Yet several successful companies did not delay such investments. One was DuPont. In April 1930, a noted DuPont research scientist, Wallace Carothers, recorded the initial discovery of neoprene (synthetic rubber). Although the company’s price levels and sales fell by roughly 10 and 15 percent, respectively, that year, DuPont boosted R&D spending to develop the new technology commercially. A buyer’s market for research scientists and low raw-material prices helped the company to keep the cost of its research investments manageable. Neoprene, which DuPont publicly announced in November 1931 and introduced commercially in 1937, became one of the 20th century’s major innovations. By 1939, every automobile and airplane manufactured in the United States had neoprene components. Similarly, DuPont discovered nylon in 1934 and introduced it in 1938 after intensive R&D and product development.

DuPont isn’t the only such example. Many new technology companies—for instance, Hewlett-Packard and Polaroid—that became leading innovators later in the century were established as entrepreneurial start-ups during the 1930s. Radio Corporation of America, the high-tech company whose stock was bludgeoned during the Great Crash, returned to profitability in 1934 as it shifted its innovation efforts from radio to the nascent television market. In total, US companies founded at least 73 in-house R&D labs each year from 1929 to 1936.

Of course, these examples don’t mean that aggressive investments for innovation would have been wise for every company during the 1930s or are universally wise today. But taken together, the patent research and the experience of successful innovators in those years suggest that although delay is the natural response to uncertainty, some companies should continue innovating even in an extraordinarily deep economic downturn—especially with technologies that take a long time to commercialize after discovery. Companies that delay these investments may forego significant growth opportunities when uncertainty subsides and the economy recovers.

The experience of the 1930s also illustrates a broader point. Although deep downturns are destructive, they can also have an upside. The Depression-era economist Joseph Schumpeter emphasized the positive consequences of downturns: the destruction of underperforming companies, the release of capital from dying sectors to new industries, and the movement of high-quality, skilled workers toward stronger employers. For companies with cash and ideas, history shows that downturns can provide enormous strategic opportunities.

About the Author

Tom Nicholas is an associate professor at the Harvard Business School, where he teaches business history and entrepreneurial management.

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  • 10 DECEMBER 2008
    Daniel Stillit
    Managing Director - Special Situations
    UBS Investment Bank
    London, United Kingdom

    We focus on M&A and see that M&A is very pro-cyclical. Would you know if there were there any transformational M&A deals done in big down cycles like the 1930s or others?

    .
    Daniel Stillit
    Managing Director - Special Situations
    UBS Investment Bank
    London, United Kingdom

    We focus on M&A and see that M&A is very pro-cyclical. Would you know if there were there any transformational M&A deals done in big down cycles like the 1930s or others?

    .
    OUR REPLY
    MKQ_response

    The cycle of M&A typically coincides with major swings in the business cycle and therefore seems to be pro-cyclical. Merger waves in history—including 1895–1904, the 1920s, late 1960s, 1980s, and mid-1990s to early 2000—have been generally associated with upturns in the stock market. During these times new innovation led to the displacement of old firms and significant changes in the organizational scale of businesses. Also, shifts in the regulatory environment and the development of capital market instruments acted as catalysts to corporate restructuring.

    Prior to the Great Depression, the first major wave of M&A occurred between 1895 and 1904 when over 1,800 manufacturing firms were merged, mostly horizontally, into 157 consolidated corporations. New, technologically innovative firms such as DuPont and General Electric either absorbed or displaced altogether older, inefficient firms. The second wave began in the early 1920s until the time of the 1929 Great Crash. It involved mostly vertical mergers by firms such as General Motors seeking to consolidate operations and guarantee supply channels. It was associated with major technological change including the diffusion of electricity and innovations in motor vehicles manufacturing. A strong wave of banking consolidations also occurred.

    In contrast to these mergers—which were mostly driven by radical shifts in innovation that facilitated economies of scale and scope—counter-cyclical M&A deals typically take place because firms hold unproductive assets that they are forced to divest. Currently we are seeing some major consolidations in the financial sector as surviving firms attempt to increase their market share through acquiring the assets of distressed rivals. A clear advantage of this strategy is fire-sale prices, but the costs associated with absorbing new businesses can be significant.

    While M&A generally paused during the Great Depression, some firms did continue their acquisition spree and in the process transform their businesses. For instance, a cash-rich company called American Home Products, founded in 1926, continued its strategic acquisitions into the 1930s, often in areas designed to diversify its product portfolio in the face of uncertain business conditions. In 1930, General Motors acquired the Winton Engine Corporation, which became a major strategic asset in the technological development of diesel engines. In 1933, IBM acquired Electromatic Typewriters, Inc., of Rochester, New York, which helped solve technical problems that had plagued the company’s machines. (IBM commercialized the first successful electric typewriter in the US in 1935.) In terms of market power, the upside to acquiring firms at this time was a favorable regulatory environment. The 1933 National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA) promoted cartelization and tolerated infringements of antitrust laws.

    The basic idea underlying my article on R&D during the Great Depression is that downturns can provide enormous strategic opportunities for firms acting counter-cyclically, which can be extended to the case of M&A. Counter-cyclical strategies may not be sensible for all firms in today’s uncertain economic environment, just as they weren’t during the Great Depression. But history shows that both in the innovation and corporate M&A space, moving in the opposite direction of the business cycle during severe economic downturns can yield significant profits.

    OUR REPLY
  • 10 DECEMBER 2008
    Can Salik
    Internal Auditor
    Renaissance Construction
    Moscow, Russia

    I have doubts about the implication that the marginal benefit of R&D spending is higher during times of crisis. New patents in the 1930s were the collective results of many years of prior studies culminating at a certain point in...

    .
    Can Salik
    Internal Auditor
    Renaissance Construction
    Moscow, Russia

    I have doubts about the implication that the marginal benefit of R&D spending is higher during times of crisis. New patents in the 1930s were the collective results of many years of prior studies culminating at a certain point in time. All these efforts turned into new patents (not applications), one by one. That certain point in time, maybe, was a time of crisis or boom. I think it is probable that the timing of patent approvals is not related with economic conditions.

    .
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